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Impact Harbingers?

YOWUSA.COM, 11-July-04
Jacco van der Worp

Over the last few months, the world has seen a series of seeming coincidences.  They may have been just that, coincidental.  However, they are odd, no matter which way you look at them.  The things we are talking about cross a very broad range of events, making it less obvious to connect them as dots.

International financial markets have seen strange movements, as have the political and military arenas.  In addition, there has been a sudden, strong increase in meteor sightings around the globe.  Perhaps we should take a closer look for a possible connection between these events.

An overview of events

A $47 billion injection into the world financial market

In the first week of June, the US Federal Bank suddenly decided to inject extra liquidity capital into the financial market.  They did not decide to inject small change, either.  The Fed injected $47 billion into the market, an enormous amount, roughly twice the size of the amount that they released onto the market right after 9-11.  Why did they do this?  Did they do this to make up for a trade deficit?  Not likely; that is done on a more or less regular basis and would not draw this much attention.

Perhaps the real reason behind this injection lies a bit deeper.  Perhaps the Fed is attempting to use this injection of dollars to counteract a shift that seems to be going from the US dollar to the Euro as prime currency for world trade and oil trade in particular.  What strikes us the most deeply so far is that links to this bit of news are disappearing even faster than they first appeared.

Reuters, Friday, 2 July 2004
Dollar holds firm grip on reserve currency status

LONDON (Reuters) - Central banks often talk about diversifying their reserves away from dollars but there are few signs yet that the greenback is losing its status as the world's preferred stand-by currency.

In 2000, when the dollar was pushing to 15-year highs against a basket of currencies, less than 27 percent of new reserve accumulation was in dollars.  Last year, when the dollar was tumbling across the board, nearly 88 percent of new central bank holdings were in dollars.

ASIAN ROAR

A rush to buy dollars just as the currency is tumbling may seem an odd investment decision.  However, central banks are not typical investors and making money plays second fiddle to broader economic goals.

MAKING WAVES

With more than $3 trillion in reserves, central banks are big hitters on foreign exchange markets and their investment decisions can send shockwaves through the markets.

While the BIS figures show little evidence of this happening, Asia central banks have repeatedly talked up plans to raise the euro component of their reserves.

Such a shift would definitely mean less than good news for the American economy that is just starting to climb back out of the deep recession it, too, has suffered over the past few years.

Other sources seem to confirm that this shift is, in fact, happening or at least starting up.  Currently in the midst of a banking crisis, Russia is seriously re -considering moving from the US dollar to the Euro for its oil export and China and Japan are battling for her favor.  Other nations sense that the U.S . is struggling to retain its grip on the oil market in that part of the world.

The Moscow Times.com, June 29, 2004
The Undeclared Oil War

By Paul Roberts.  While some debate whether the war in Iraq was or was not about oil, another war, this one involving little but oil, has broken out between two of the world's most powerful nations.

For months, China and Japan have been locked in a diplomatic battle over access to the big oil fields in Siberia.

Already we can see the outlines.  China and Japan are scrapping over Siberia.  In the Caspian Sea region, European, Russian, Chinese and American governments and oil companies are battling for a stake in the big oil fields of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.  In Africa, the United States is building a network of military bases and diplomatic missions whose main goal is to protect American access to oil fields in volatile places such as Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and tiny Sao Tome -- and, as important, to deny that access to China and other thirsty superpowers.

This, ultimately, is the real energy security dilemma.

The more obvious it becomes that an oil-dominated energy economy is inherently insecure, the harder it becomes to move on to something beyond oil.

The move suggested in the Moscow Times article could be more realistic than first thought, when one looks at the activity going on around the globe.  However, not only the diplomatic front is doing overtime.  There is movement on other fronts as well.

Naval activity

Currently, there is a substantial increase in activity of navies around the world.  The world's navies have planned and are carrying out a huge, worldwide, coordinated exercise, lasting almost the entire summer.

Navy News, 26.05.04
Ships head west for Aurora

Eighteen warships, led by Fleet flagship HMS Invincible, are taking part in Exercise Aurora, stretching along the eastern seaboard of the United States to the Gulf of Mexico.

Also joining the war games are ships and personnel from Canada, Holland, Germany, Peru, Norway, Italy, Denmark, France and Australia.

Beyond the force gets down to business in the exercises, visits by various vessels in the Aurora task force are lined up for the Azores, Bermuda, Virginia, Massachusetts, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, New York and Louisiana.

There is more.  The US is conducting a major exercise of their own, called Summer Pulse 04.

United States Department of Defense
News Release

No. 538-04

IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 2, 2004

Navy Tests New Operational Construct.  Seven Carrier Strike Groups Underway for Exercise "Summer Pulse 04"

The Department of Defense announced today that this summer, simultaneous deployment of seven aircraft carrier strike groups (CSGs) will demonstrate the ability of the Navy to provide credible combat power across the globe by operating in five theaters with other U.S., allied, and coalition military forces.  "Summer Pulse 04" will be the Navy's first exercise of its new operational construct, the Fleet Response Plan (FRP). 

The seven aircraft carriers involved in "Summer Pulse 04" will include the Norfolk-based USS George Washington CSG and the San Diego-based USS John C. Stennis CSG, both currently deployed, and Yokosuka, Japan-based USS Kitty Hawk.  The Mayport, Fla.-based USS John F Kennedy CSG will begin a combined and joint exercise early this month, followed by a scheduled overseas deployment.  The Norfolk-based USS Harry S. Truman CSG will conduct a scheduled training exercise followed by overseas pulse operations with the Norfolk -based USS Enterprise CSG, beginning early this month.  USS Ronald Reagan will conduct operations in the U.S. Northern Command and U.S. Southern Command theaters during the ship's interfleet transfer from Norfolk, Va., to its Pacific Fleet homeport of San Diego.

This news release points out that seven carrier groups are heading out to sea to join in the massive exercise.  That pretty much makes up the entire US carrier fleet that is able to sail right now and not already involved in war activity.  Insider counts talk of 75% of the total fleet heading out, compared to a normal 25 — 40% deployment at any given time.  That definitely should raise some eyebrows.

We take a step back now and try to take a helicopter view of things.  We have looked at the international political game shifting gears and accelerating.  Most of the changes are subliminal, but not as deeply hidden at the reasons behind them.  The heart of the matter is what is worth the time and expense to put your entire navy out to sea in such a stretch move.  Surely, the decision makers at the top of the navy have good intelligence information at their disposal.  Nations do not put so many ships out to sea unless they feel the need to do so.  If that is the case, then the $64,000 question becomes why.

Are we planning a war, perhaps even bigger than the one going on right now in Iraq and Afghanistan?  Will we need even more support from carrier groups for air strikes in new areas or countries, such as North Korea or Sudan?

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If the U.S. Navy were doing this alone, the need for increased support might explain the action, but given the list of participating countries in the summer exercises, this becomes somewhat unlikely.  The Peruvian navy participating against Sudan or North Korea seems a bit far-fetched even to an optimistic, globalistic thinker.

There has to be more.  There is another possible reason behind this heightened action of navies and geo-political shifts and economic humdrum.  It starts with recent observations.

Meteor activity

Over the past few months, there has been a very noticeable increase in reporting of sightings of meteors.  They are getting bigger, too.  The culmination of this so far was the impact of a 1.3 kg meteor in a New Zealand house on Saturday June 12, 2004.  Someone actually retrieved this one after impact, although local witnesses claimed that they saw much larger bolides.

Meteorite magazine

The rear view of the 1.3 kg meteorite that recently crashed through the roof of a home in Auckland, New Zealand

However, it was not the only one seen in New Zealand in June 2004.

The New Zealand Herald, 13.06.2004
Spectacular rare green meteor lights up morning sky

By AMANDA KYNE

A rare bright-green meteor flew across the sky early yesterday, surprising early risers around the country.

Stardome Observatory spokesman Warren Hurley said the meteor was particularly bright and larger than average, at 20-50cm in diameter.

It travelled from Whangarei to Edendale, near Invercargill, and was visible for 10 seconds down the East Coast of New Zealand.

When looking into these recent sightings of meteors, Marshall Masters found that there has been a perhaps significant global increase of sightings .  He has put them into a list that continues to be updated as new reports come in.  This list is on the YOWUSA message board under the topic Global Meteor Sightings.  If you do observe some meteor passing by across the sky or even impacting, please notify us at mail@yowusa.com.

An increase in meteor sightings could be merely a few more rocks grazing through our atmosphere.  Otherwise, the increase might also lead to bigger rocks about to reach us, a cloud of debris ‘waiting for us'.

If such a cloud of debris was on the way to Earth, if some minor to somewhat serious impacts were to happen, not major, but sufficient to raise some turmoil, then, putting most of your navy out to sea would make some sense.  In deeper water, they'll be safer against tidal waves from an oceanic impact.  In that case, one should watch where they head to, because they will move away from any known impact site.

Such a cloud would also explain the desire to desperately push the envelope to retain control over the oil coming from more remote areas, ensuring the continuity of your own supply.  It would even explain the need to go to battle over oil while ignoring criticism from the international community.

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